Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
